Longoria-Herrera Match Stat Breakdown

Herrera celebrating her first LPRT win. Photo screen capture from LPRT Facebook video of awards ceremony

I thought it would be illuminating to break down the LPRT final between Paola Longoria and Alexandra Herrera, looking for some trends and interesting data points.

Using my standard detailed Match Tracker, I filled in match stats for the first game of the final, a nail-biting 15-14 win for Herrera.

Here’s a link to the match tracker detailed data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t8GgzPppq4dZvZwkS3yITkZAlKGSRQAGROM6woq-0G4/edit?usp=sharing and here’s a link to the video on Facebook for the match: https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?ref=watch_permalink&v=372683864314937

Here’s some breakdowns.

Duration Stats
Game start in Video6:45 in video
Game end43:23 in video
Game duration36mins 38 seconds
Avg time per rally36.6 secs

So, this was a long game. 36 minutes overall. Both players took both their time-outs, both players took a brief equipment time-out, and there were a couple of appeals. All told, including the time-outs the average time per rally was 36.6 seconds. This is slightly longer than the average rally time for the last match I did this for; the Parrilla-Waselenchuk Atlanta final tie-breaker.

Serving Breakdown:

Serving# of svc attempts# of AcesServes Good1st Serve %1st Drive Serves1st Drive serve %1st Lob Serves1st Lob Serve %
AH Serves30222 of 3073.33%30 of 30100%0 of 300%
PL Serves30325 of 3083.33%30 of 30100%0 of 300%

Both players served exactly 30 times. Both players drove serve on every first serve, and Paola actually ended up with a higher first serve percentage than Alexandra on the day.

Serve Selection% 1st to F% 1st to B% 2nd to F% 2nd to B

Paola basically split her drives between Alexandra’s forehand and backhand on the day, hitting 16 drives to the left side, 14 to the right. Meanwhile, as a lefty Herrera has grown up accustomed to primarily serving to right handers, and thus focused mostly on hitting drives to Paola’s backhand. Both hit mostly simple lobs to the backhand as 2nd serves; there was almost no variation on the lob serves used: no nick lob attempt, no wall paper; just half-height lobs meant to solicit a ceiling ball in return.

Serve Breakdown and Success rates

Serve Type SelectionServe selectionhow often usedPct UsedHow often point?Pct points
AH #1 1st Serve SelectionDrive to Backhand19 of 3063.33%10 of 1662.50%
AH #2 1st Serve SelectionDrive to Forehand10 of 3033.33%4 of 580.00%
AH #3 1st Serve selectionHard Z-Serve to Backhand1 of 303.33%0 of 10.00%
AH Most frequent 2nd serve selectionLob Serve to Backhand6 of 875.00%1 of 616.67%

Here’s where we get some interesting information. Alexandra hit 19 of her 30 serves as drives to the backhand, and got points on 10 of the 16 successful first serves she made. That’s a 62% rate, pretty good. Furthermore, she tried 10 drives to Paola’s forehand, missed half of them, but got points on 4 of the 5 successful serves. She only varied away from these two straightforward serves once; a z-ball to Paola’s backhand that did not work.

Serve Type SelectionServe selectionhow often usedPct UsedHow often point?Pct points
PL #1 1st Serve SelectionDrive to Forehand16 of 3053.33%9 of 1275.00%
PL #2 1st Serve SelectionHard Z-Serve to Backhand9 of 3030.00%3 of 933.33%
PL #3 1st Serve selectionDrive to Backhand5 of 3016.67%1 of 425.00%
PL Most frequent 2nd serve selectionLob Serve to Backhand5 of 5100.00%1 of 520.00%

Meanwhile, Paola had a ton of success when driving to Alexandra’s forehand, getting 9 of her 14 points that way and having a huge success rate when she got that serve in. It was clear during the match that she started with the hard-Z to the backhand with little success, then got some points on the forehand drive, and the stuck with it the rest of the way.

 Serves leading to pointspct
AH 1st Serve good14 points out of 2263.64%
AH 1st Serve bad1 point out of 812.50%
PL 1st Serve good13 points out of 2552.00%
PL 1st Serve bad1 point out of 520.00%

This chart basically shows why you need to get your first serves in. The two players combined to score exactly 2 points on their second serves all game.

RalliesRallies WonPct of Rallies
AH Rallies won31 of 6051.67%
PL Rallies won29 of 6048.33%
Replays0 of 600.00%

This shows just how even the match was: out of 60 rallies, they nearly split them 50/50. Alexandra won two more rallies than Paola b/c Paola served first and then Alexandra scored the last point. There was not a single replay in the entire first game.

 Rally Winner/Error Stats
(not including serves)TtlFHBHPassPinch
AH Rally Winners20137119
AH Rally ending Errors321  
PL Rally Winners221111184
PL Rally Ending Errors972  

So, this shows some interesting information. Alexandra hit 13 of her 20 winners on the forehand, and pretty evenly split all her winners between passes and pinches. Meanwhile, Paola really does not shoot for the corners, getting 18 of her 22 winners as passing/kill shots. Paola also shows

The story of this game though is right here: 9 errors for Longoria versus 3 for Herrera. And of those three errors, one was an “off the back wall’ attempt that fell short and a second was a ball that bounced weird off the back wall and jammed her. In other words, Alexandra had just one skip this entire game. Longoria had 9 skips, 7 on her forehand.

Ratio of Winners to ErrorsRatioRatio
AH20 to 36.6 winners for every error
PL22 to 92.44 winners for every error

Further illumination of the shotmaking in this game: 20 winners to 3 errors for Herrera.

(these figures not including serve)Rally Stats
Average # of shots per rally , entire game3.95
Average # shots in AH-won rallys4.25
Average # of shots in PL-won rallys:3.62
Average # of shots in replay ralliesn/a
longest Rally of game17 and 16: both ended with PL error

The average number of shots per rally (not including the serve) was 3.95 in this game, but much shorter in Paola won rallies. The 3.95 figure compares to the average rally length for the Parrilla-Kane match, which was just 2.24. Women’s rallies tend to be longer.

Short Rally Statstotal% of rallies
# of Aces58.33%
# of 2 shot rallies (serve, return)813.33%
# of 3 shot rallies (serve, return, end)46.67%

A decent percentage of the 60 rallies were “short” rallies: 1,2 or 3 shots including the serve.

 Game points Saved
by AH4
by PL3

The players managed to save seven game points between them; that’s a heck of an accomplishment by both.

Lastly, since Rally scoring has now been introduced by the IRF, I thought i’d show you what this game would have looked like if it was rally scoring:

(all these times include Tos)Rally Scoring Stats
Game end if rally21:46 in video
Game duration if rally15mins 1 sec
Game score at Rally finish8-4 for AH

If playing rally scoring, the game would have been over in 15mins with the score 8-4 for Alexandra. Instead, we got a 36 minute barn-burner that saw Longoria rally from an 11-4 deficit and nearly take the game. What problem exactly are we attempting to solve with rally scoring? Because every time I do this analysis we’d basically neuter an excellent game.

One Reply to “Longoria-Herrera Match Stat Breakdown”

  1. Exactly my view on the rally scoring. My entire viewpoint has been that format will take away the great matches that people remember. Thanks for all this data info nice to look at.

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